{"id":15481,"date":"2026-04-22T09:01:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T09:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/?p=15481"},"modified":"2026-04-22T09:05:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T09:05:32","slug":"sp-global-economic-research-ai-leaves-central-and-eastern-europes-it-success-at-a-crossroads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/?p=15481","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P Global: Economic Research: AI Leaves Central And Eastern Europe&#8217;s IT Success At A Crossroads"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul><li><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">AI\u2019s potential to replace routine jobs in back\u2011office functions, data processing, low\u2011level coding, and administrative roles could weigh on Central and Eastern Europe\u2019s information and communication technology sector, which has been one of the key drivers of the region\u2019s economic growth and job creation over the past 10 to 15 years.<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">The ICT sector is still growing in CEE, yet recent data shows slowing ICT job creation, largely due to reduced entry\u2011level hiring.<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color\">AI adoption in CEE currently lags Western Europe, which, combined with the CEE IT sector\u2019s labor structure, raises questions about the future of the ICT success story in several economies, including Czechia, Slovenia, Romania, and Poland.<\/span><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Central and Eastern Europe\u2019s (CEE) information and communication technology (ICT) sector has emerged as one of the world\u2019s most dynamic technology hubs in the past 15 years. Lower labor costs and a deep pool of local talent have enabled CEE economies to expand services exports, particularly in IT and financial services. These services are now the backbone of many economies in the region, especially in Baltics, where they account for over a quarter of total exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/ratings\/en\/regulatory\/article\/economic-research-ai-leaves-central-and-eastern-europes-it-success-at-a-crossroads-s101678600\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Economic Research: AI Leaves Central And Eastern | S&amp;P Global Ratings<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The emergence of AI poses both risks and opportunities for CEE\u2019s IT sector. Recent data points to a slowdown in ICT job creation, and the region appears to lag Western Europe and the U.S in AI adoption. S&amp;P Global Ratings considers the CEE\u2019s IT sector to be at a crossroads, with AI potentially proving a blessing or a curse in the years to come, particularly for economies that are heavily reliant on IT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"id4\">ICT Exports Are A CEE Success Story<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Service exports have surged in CEE. Over the past 15 years, they have more than doubled in real terms (see chart 1), with the strongest gains in IT outsourcing, fintech, financial services, and shared service centers. This growth leveraged skilled local labor and lower wages compared with developed economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has increased the importance of services exports in several CEE economies. In the Baltics, service exports now account for more than 30% of total exports (see chart 2). Meanwhile, manufacturing\u2019s share of value-added has declined across most CEE economies, partly because service exports have, in some cases, grown faster than goods exports (see chart 3). ICT has been particularly important to service exports, now accounting for a significant share of gross value added in many economies (see chart 4).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The surge in ICT exports contributed to a significant increase in CEE employment. Poland and Romania have become major outsourcing hubs, with thousands of global firms establishing shared service centers. Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia have also attracted multinational corporations, particularly for back\u2011office operations. Baltic states employment, meanwhile, has benefited from the region\u2019s focus on digital services and fintech. Consequently, ICT employment has increased significantly (see chart 5).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The surge in services exports is not only about economic growth and job creation. The increasing importance of services means export revenues from this sector also offer a buffer against external shocks (see \u201c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/ratings\/en\/regulatory\/article\/-\/view\/sourceId\/101647472\" target=\"_blank\">Services Become Emerging Markets&#8217; New Shock Absorber<\/a>,\u201d Oct. 13, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"id5\">AI Is A Risk And Opportunity For The CEE IT Sector<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>AI poses a displacement risk to some IT jobs in CEE. A substantial share of the region\u2019s ICT growth has been driven by IT and financial services outsourcing, with the resultant economic activity and employment heavily concentrated in back\u2011office functions, data processing, low\u2011level coding, and administrative roles. These jobs are particularly susceptible to automation and AI\u2011driven substitution due to the repetitive nature of the work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IT sector structure in several CEE economies suggests a high concentration of these at-risk roles. In particular Czechia, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia appear to have a smaller proportion of jobs less susceptible to AI displacement, such as managerial and manual roles (see chart 6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economies with larger ICT sector relative to their total size also tend to have a higher share of managerial roles within those sectors. Estonia, Serbia and Lithuania have the highest proportion of managerial and manual jobs in ICT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, most ICT jobs are professional roles (generally 60% to 80% of the total). Current data limitations prevent a more granular assessment of AI exposure, but a significant share of these roles likely face AI\u2011related risks. The share of professional roles in the IT sector broadly corresponds to that in Western Europe (see chart 7).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The relatively low frequency of privately held IT startups valued at over $1 billion (unicorns) in CEE may be indicative of the region\u2019s reliance on ICT outsourcing. While the ICT sector contributes more value added (as a share of GDP) in CEE compared with many developed economies, the number of unicorns headquartered in the region generally lags advanced economies, both in absolute and per\u2011capita terms, except in the Baltic states (see chart 8). This is despite a significant share of unicorns in Western Europe being founded by individuals originally from CEE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The smaller number of CEE-based unicorns may indicate a higher prevalence of subsidiaries of foreign companies, implying a larger share of outsourcing\u2011related jobs that may be more susceptible to replacement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the structure of the ICT labor market in CEE seems to be broadly similar to that of Western Europe, with the exceptions noted previously. While the outsourcing sector appears substantial in most CEE economies, comparisons with developed European economies generally do not indicate an overreliance on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"id6\">Latest Trends In CEE\u2019s ICT Sector Raise Questions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent data indicates a slowdown in ICT job creation in CEE. Service exports continue to grow, but at a slower pace than previously. Simultaneously, job creation in the IT sector&#8211;the area most directly affected by AI&#8211;appears to be slowing (see chart 9). The rise of AI is likely a key factor behind the decline in IT job vacancies, as many entry\u2011level roles involve routine tasks and basic programming that can increasingly be partially automated or replaced by AI. Labor market dynamics in the CEE are broadly comparable to other economies with sizable IT sectors, specifically the U.S. and Western Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>New data also suggests alignment with earlier surveys on job market trends. A recent S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence survey projects that while AI investment will likely have a neutral to positive overall impact on employment, larger firms are more likely to reduce headcounts, and IT functions within enterprises have the strongest negative employment implications ( see \u201c<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/en\/research-insights\/special-reports\/generative-ai-workforce-more-redistribution-than-reduction\" target=\"_blank\">Generative AI and the workforce: More redistribution than reduction<\/a>,\u201d Sept. 23, 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Decreased entry-level hiring is not necessarily negative, as it may alleviate some labor supply pressures stemming from the region\u2019s shrinking workforce. Labor markets in some CEE economies, particularly Poland and Czechia, are among the tightest in the EU. Assuming current demographics trends continue, these markets are likely to remain tight or become even tighter in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AI\u2019s potential to replace routine jobs in back\u2011office functions, data processing, low\u2011level coding, and administrative roles could weigh on Central and Eastern Europe\u2019s information and communication technology sector, which has been one of the key drivers of the region\u2019s economic [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15483,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7,19,18,6,3],"tags":[1295],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15481"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15481"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15481\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15484,"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15481\/revisions\/15484"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/outsourcing-today.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}